There’s something strangely poetic about watching betting markets turn one of gaming’s most anticipated sequels into an underdog before it even has a chance to prove itself. The current Polymarket odds for 2025’s Game of the Year tell a fascinating story: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 sits comfortably at 91% probability, while Hollow Knight: Silksong—the game that dominated gaming conversations for weeks after its release—languishes at a mere 4.5%. This isn’t just a numbers game; it’s a reflection of how our collective expectations and the reality of award season often diverge in spectacular fashion.
What makes this betting landscape so compelling is the sheer disconnect between cultural momentum and perceived award viability. Silksong arrived after seven years of development hell, broke the internet upon release, and delivered exactly what fans had been dreaming about—a challenging, mysterious, and beautifully crafted Metroidvania that built upon its predecessor’s legacy. Yet here we are, watching betting markets essentially declare it has no shot at gaming’s highest honor. The initial betting patterns were telling: Silksong actually led the pack in the first hour after markets opened, suggesting that early bettors were riding the hype wave before reality—or at least, the betting community’s version of reality—set in.
The rise of Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 as the overwhelming favorite reveals something important about how we evaluate games for awards versus how we experience them as players. Sandfall Interactive’s turn-based RPG came out of nowhere to capture betting attention, suggesting that award voters might be looking for something that feels fresh and innovative rather than iterative, even when that iteration is executed to near-perfection. There’s an unspoken bias in award circles toward games that break new ground rather than perfect existing formulas, and betting markets seem to be anticipating this pattern playing out once again.
Looking at the broader field, the betting odds create a fascinating hierarchy that doesn’t necessarily align with critical reception or player enthusiasm. Hades 2, which currently holds the highest Metacritic score of any 2025 release, sits at just 1% probability—a stunning disconnect between quality and perceived award potential. Kingdom Come: Deliverance II and Death Stranding 2 find themselves in similar positions, suggesting that betting markets are discounting established franchises in favor of what they perceive as the next big thing. This creates a strange dynamic where games that are objectively excellent according to critics are being treated as long shots by those willing to put real money on the line.
Ultimately, this betting phenomenon speaks to the fundamental unpredictability of art appreciation and the gap between what resonates with players versus what appeals to award juries. The fact that over $75,000 has been wagered on this market shows how seriously people take these predictions, but it also highlights how difficult it is to quantify artistic merit and cultural impact. As we watch these odds fluctuate throughout the year, they’ll serve as a fascinating barometer of gaming’s collective consciousness—a real-time reflection of our hopes, expectations, and perhaps our cynicism about which games truly deserve to be remembered when 2025 comes to a close.
About the Author
